China's Electric Technology Trade

The New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics published an analysis on China's electric technology trade. The article discusses how government industrial policies have led to significant growth in China's electric vehicle and battery exports, contributing to its trade surplus, while solar panel exports have been impacted by falling prices.

New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast - March 2026

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York released its March 2026 DSGE model forecast, updating economic projections. The forecast indicates more robust growth in 2026, driven by stronger investment, and more persistent inflation, attributed to cost-push shocks.

Firms' Inflation Expectations Return to 2024 Levels

The New York Fed's Liberty Street Economics blog published an analysis indicating that firms' inflation expectations have moderated to 2024 levels. Despite increased cost pressures and price hikes in 2025, particularly in the manufacturing sector, firms anticipate inflation of 3 percent in the year ahead, with longer-term expectations remaining anchored.

Rising Employee Health Insurance Costs May Dampen Wage Growth

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Liberty Street Economics published an analysis on March 4, 2026, indicating that rising employee health insurance costs are dampening wage growth. Businesses reported that absent these cost increases, they would have raised wages by an additional percentage point on average.

AI Adoption and Firms' Job-Posting Behavior

The Federal Reserve's FEDS Notes published research indicating that AI adoption has not yet led to a reduction in overall job postings by firms. The study analyzed job posting data and found that while specific occupations may be affected, firms are balancing this with other hiring priorities. This research is part of an ongoing monitoring process for AI's labor market impacts.

China's Trade Dominance and Industrial Policies

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes article detailing China's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, which exceeded 6% of its GDP. The analysis highlights China's broad export expansion across sectors, the resulting loss of market share by advanced economies, and the role of industrial policies in contributing to China's trade surplus.

Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025

The Federal Reserve's FEDS Notes published an analysis finding that tariffs gradually increased retail prices in 2025, with the greatest impact on goods imported from China. The analysis indicates that tariff pass-through to consumers for Chinese goods was at least 30% by December 2025.

Banks' Lending Standards Expectations Measured via Loan Officer Survey

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes article analyzing how banks form expectations about future credit supply using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The analysis explores factors influencing these expectations, including macroeconomic forecasts and bank characteristics, and identifies expectation shocks.

Assessing Bank Resilience to a Funding Shock

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes analysis assessing bank resilience to a hypothetical funding shock. The analysis uses the FLARE stress testing model, incorporating a shock to uninsured deposits, to project impacts on bank profitability and capital ratios under various scenarios.

OCC Announces Enforcement Actions for March 2026

The OCC has announced its enforcement actions for March 2026, including an Order of Prohibition against a former bank employee for unauthorized withdrawals totaling over $19,000. The OCC also terminated four prior enforcement actions against financial institutions.