FEDS Notes (Federal Reserve)

Assessing Bank Resilience to a Funding Shock

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes analysis assessing bank resilience to a hypothetical funding shock. The analysis uses the FLARE stress testing model, incorporating a shock to uninsured deposits, to project impacts on bank profitability and capital ratios under various scenarios.

Banks' Lending Standards Expectations Measured via Loan Officer Survey

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes article analyzing how banks form expectations about future credit supply using data from the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey. The analysis explores factors influencing these expectations, including macroeconomic forecasts and bank characteristics, and identifies expectation shocks.

Tariffs Gradually Raised Retail Prices in 2025

The Federal Reserve's FEDS Notes published an analysis finding that tariffs gradually increased retail prices in 2025, with the greatest impact on goods imported from China. The analysis indicates that tariff pass-through to consumers for Chinese goods was at least 30% by December 2025.

China's Trade Dominance and Industrial Policies

The Federal Reserve published a FEDS Notes article detailing China's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, which exceeded 6% of its GDP. The analysis highlights China's broad export expansion across sectors, the resulting loss of market share by advanced economies, and the role of industrial policies in contributing to China's trade surplus.

AI Adoption and Firms' Job-Posting Behavior

The Federal Reserve's FEDS Notes published research indicating that AI adoption has not yet led to a reduction in overall job postings by firms. The study analyzed job posting data and found that while specific occupations may be affected, firms are balancing this with other hiring priorities. This research is part of an ongoing monitoring process for AI's labor market impacts.