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Robust Interval Methodology for Average Household Income

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Summary

Banca d'Italia published QEF No. 1008, an Occasional Paper by Domenico Depalo and David Loschiavo proposing a robust interval methodology for timely estimation of average household income. The paper uses data from the Indagine congiunturale sulle famiglie italiane (2023) and the Indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie italiane (2022) to estimate income intervals while accounting for non-response bias. The methodology was validated by showing that an interval of 28,602 to 31,460 euros would have captured the official 2023 estimate of 31,356 euros published in March 2025.

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What changed

Banca d'Italia released QEF No. 1008, a methodological research paper on robust interval estimation for average household income using Italian family survey data. The paper demonstrates that combining data from the Indagine congiunturale and Indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie enables timely estimates that remain unbiased despite non-response in surveys.

For financial institutions, central banks, and statistical agencies: this paper offers a replicable methodology for improving the timeliness of income distribution statistics without waiting for full official releases. Research institutions and data science teams working with survey-based economic indicators may find the interval estimation approach applicable to other demographic or financial survey datasets.

Archived snapshot

Apr 21, 2026

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N. 1008 - Intervalli per stime tempestive del reddito medio delle famiglie

Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) di Domenico Depalo e David Loschiavo Aprile 2026

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Molte indagini campionarie permettono di avere informazioni sulle classi di reddito di appartenenza delle famiglie incluse nel campione e, per alcune di quest'ultime, anche il livello esatto del reddito. Questo lavoro propone una metodologia che utilizza quelle informazioni per stimare in modo tempestivo un intervallo nel quale il reddito medio delle famiglie si colloca, ottenendo stime robuste e prive di distorsioni derivanti da mancate risposte nelle indagini prima del rilascio dei dati ufficiali.

Utilizzando i dati dell' Indagine congiunturale sulle famiglie italiane sul 2023 e dell' Indagine sui bilanci delle famiglie italiane sul 2022 della Banca d'Italia, si mostra che già nel maggio 2024 sarebbe stato possibile stimare il reddito medio delle famiglie per il 2023 in un intervallo compreso tra 28.602 e 31.460 euro. Questo intervallo comprende la stima ufficiale (31.356 euro) pubblicata quasi un anno dopo, nel marzo 2025.

Testo della pubblicazione

  1. 21 aprile 2026 N. 1008 - Intervalli per stime tempestive del reddito medio delle famiglie PDF 2 MB (testo in inglese)

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Classification

Agency
BDI
Published
April 21st, 2026
Instrument
Notice
Branch
Executive
Source language
it
Legal weight
Non-binding
Stage
Final
Change scope
Minor

Who this affects

Applies to
Government agencies Investors Financial advisers
Industry sector
9211 Government & Public Administration
Activity scope
Economic research Statistical methodology Survey analysis
Geographic scope
IT IT

Taxonomy

Primary area
Financial Services
Operational domain
Finance
Topics
Banking Statistics

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