Interactive Tool for Analyzing Federal Budget Projections, 2026-2036

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How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget, 2026 to 2036: An Interactive Tool

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This tool allows users to define and analyze alternative economic scenarios and see how federal revenues, outlays, and deficits and debt under those scenarios might differ from outcomes in CBO's 10-year budget projections (often referred to as the agency's budget baseline). The tool is a simplified model of how budgetary and economic outcomes would change if certain economic measures differed from CBO's projections; the results approximate those that would be derived from CBO's full suite of budget and economic models.

Details

Every year, CBO publishes projections of what the federal budget and the economy would look like in the current fiscal year and over the next 10 years if current laws governing taxes and spending generally remained unchanged. The agency uses its economic forecast as a basis for projecting revenues from each major revenue source (individual income taxes, corporate income taxes, payroll taxes, customs duties, and other taxes), outlays for federal budget accounts, the resulting deficits or surpluses, and federal debt. Those budget projections form CBO's budget baseline, which provides a benchmark that is used to evaluate the anticipated effects of proposed legislation and to determine whether the legislation is subject to various budget enforcement procedures. If economic conditions differed noticeably from those in CBO's forecast, budgetary outcomes could differ from those in the agency's baseline budget projections.

This interactive tool allows users to define alternative economic scenarios and see how revenues, outlays, and deficits and debt under those scenarios might differ from those in the agency's February 2026 baseline budget projections. Users may adjust four economic variables—productivity growth, labor force growth, interest rates, and inflation—by specifying differences in the values of those variables relative to the values underlying the agency's baseline budget projections. In addition to providing estimates of budgetary outcomes, the tool shows how values of certain other economic measures—including gross domestic product (GDP), real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices), and interest rates—might change under the user-specified scenario.

Limitations

This interactive tool is based on the agency's "rules of thumb" about the budgetary effects of changes in key economic variables that are described in How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036. This tool, therefore, provides results that only approximate those that CBO would produce using its broad set of economic and budget models.

The formulas underlying the tool do not capture all the complex interactions among variables that would result from wider changes in the economy, although they do capture certain interactions. For example, when productivity growth is adjusted, the estimated percentage-point changes in real GDP growth reflect not only the direct effect of changes in productivity growth specified by the user but also the effects of those changes on the labor supply. Furthermore, the resulting changes in income approximate those that would be estimated by CBO's models. Similarly, when labor force growth is set to differ from the growth underlying the agency's baseline budget projections, the estimated effects on real GDP growth reflect how the labor supply and investment activity would respond to the user-specified changes—again, with the income effects approximating those generated by CBO's models. (Unlike the scenarios for productivity growth and labor force growth, in which other economic variables are allowed to change, the scenarios for interest rates and inflation hold those other variables constant.)

Like the rules of thumb, this tool calculates alternative estimates on the basis of changes in only a few specific variables. The simplified formulas underlying the tool do not capture all changes that could stem from broader changes in the economy or from changes in fiscal policy; rather, the user-specified scenarios share the same general economic conditions and are assumed to be subject to the same tax and spending policies underlying CBO's baseline projections. If, for example, a change in productivity was brought about by a change in immigration or by a change in the tax code, the effects on the economy and the budget would be more complicated than those estimated using this tool.

The estimates produced by this interactive tool will reasonably approximate the estimates that CBO's broader set of models would produce for only moderate changes in economic variables. Larger changes would require CBO to perform additional analysis to determine the budgetary and economic effects. Relative to CBO's baseline estimates, annual deviations of up to 0.5 percentage points for the productivity growth scenario, 0.75 percentage points for the labor force growth scenario, and 1 percentage point for the interest rates and inflation scenarios are expected to produce reasonable results. Users are not able to input values outside those ranges because the tool cannot approximate CBO's full suite of models for such scenarios.

What if differed from the projections that CBO published in February 2026?

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Value estimated	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035	2036
Productivity growth (%)
CBO's baseline	1.10	1.15	1.13	1.14	1.18	1.18	1.17	1.15	1.13	1.12	1.11
Change from baseline
User-specified scenario	1.00	1.05	1.03	1.04	1.08	1.08	1.07	1.04	1.03	1.02	1.01
Deficit (-) or surplus ($B)
CBO's baseline	−1,853	−1,887	−2,080	−2,020	−2,201	−2,286	−2,439	−2,781	−2,819	−2,779	−3,115
Change from baseline	−4	−8	−12	−15	−20	−26	−31	−38	−46	−55	−65
User-specified scenario	−1,857	−1,895	−2,091	−2,035	−2,221	−2,311	−2,471	−2,819	−2,864	−2,834	−3,181
Cumulative change (starting in 2027)	n.a.	−8	−20	−35	−56	−81	−113	−151	−196	−251	−317

This tool can estimate the effects of changes in productivity growth in the range of −0.5 to 0.5 percentage points each year.

By design, changes made to productivity growth in a given year will alter values in earlier years because, in CBO's assessment, people and markets respond to changes in expectations about the future and those responses affect interest rates and other economic variables.

Productivity growth: Measured using the index for potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector. Total factor productivity is calculated as the average real output per unit of combined labor and capital services. Although all productivity-related indexes change in this scenario, the table shows only the effects on the index for potential total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector.

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Budgetary Effects

Billions of dollars

| Value estimated | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2027–
2031 | 2027–
2036 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Changes in revenues | −5 | −13 | −21 | −31 | −41 | −52 | −64 | −76 | −90 | −105 | −122 | −158 | −614 |
| Changes in outlays |
| Mandatory outlays | 0 | −1 | −2 | −2 | −3 | −4 | −5 | −6 | −8 | −9 | −11 | −12 | −51 |
| Discretionary outlays | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net interest outlays |
| Effects from changes in interest rates | −1 | −4 | −9 | −14 | −19 | −25 | −31 | −37 | −43 | −49 | −56 | −71 | −287 |
| Debt service | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 7 | 40 |
| Subtotal, net interest outlays | −1 | −4 | −8 | −13 | −17 | −22 | −27 | −32 | −37 | −41 | −45 | −65 | −246 |
| Total change in outlays | −1 | −5 | −10 | −15 | −21 | −26 | −32 | −38 | −44 | −50 | −56 | −77 | −298 |
| Increase (-) or decrease in the deficit relative to CBO's February 2026 baseline | −4 | −8 | −12 | −15 | −20 | −26 | −31 | −38 | −46 | −55 | −65 | −81 | −317 |
| Deficit (-) or surplus |
| February 2026 baseline | −1,853 | −1,887 | −2,080 | −2,020 | −2,201 | −2,286 | −2,439 | −2,781 | −2,819 | −2,779 | −3,115 | −10,473 | −24,406 |
| User-specified scenario | −1,857 | −1,895 | −2,091 | −2,035 | −2,221 | −2,311 | −2,471 | −2,819 | −2,864 | −2,834 | −3,181 | −10,554 | −24,723 |
| Debt held by the public |
| February 2026 baseline | 32,095 | 34,005 | 36,093 | 38,103 | 40,280 | 42,528 | 44,922 | 47,644 | 50,394 | 53,103 | 56,152 | n.a. | n.a. |
| User-specified scenario | 32,100 | 34,017 | 36,117 | 38,142 | 40,340 | 42,614 | 45,039 | 47,799 | 50,595 | 53,359 | 56,473 | n.a. | n.a. |
| Deficit (-) or surplus (percentage of GDP) |
| February 2026 baseline | −5.8 | −5.7 | −6.0 | −5.6 | −5.9 | −5.9 | −6.1 | −6.7 | −6.5 | −6.2 | −6.7 | −5.8 | −6.1 |
| User-specified scenario | −5.8 | −5.7 | −6.0 | −5.7 | −6.0 | −6.0 | −6.2 | −6.8 | −6.7 | −6.4 | −6.9 | −5.9 | −6.3 |
| Debt held by the public (percentage of GDP) |
| February 2026 baseline | 100.6 | 102.1 | 104.1 | 105.8 | 107.7 | 109.6 | 111.5 | 114.0 | 116.2 | 118.0 | 120.2 | n.a. | n.a. |
| User-specified scenario | 100.7 | 102.3 | 104.5 | 106.4 | 108.4 | 110.5 | 112.7 | 115.4 | 117.8 | 119.9 | 122.5 | n.a. | n.a. |

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. For more information, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026) and How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036 (April 2026).

Values are for federal fiscal years, which run from October 1 to September 30 and are designated by the calendar year in which they end.

n.a. = not applicable.

Discretionary outlays do not change in the user-specified scenario.

Download a copy of this table (.csv)

Economic Effects

| Real GDP growth (percent) |
| February 2026 baseline | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| User-specified scenario | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Real GDP (billions of 2017 dollars) |
| February 2026 baseline | 24,394 | 24,848 | 25,296 | 25,740 | 26,199 | 26,665 | 27,134 | 27,614 | 28,102 | 28,600 | 29,106 |
| User-specified scenario | 24,367 | 24,795 | 25,215 | 25,629 | 26,056 | 26,487 | 26,920 | 27,362 | 27,809 | 28,265 | 28,725 |
| Nominal GDP (billions of dollars) |
| February 2026 baseline | 32,274 | 33,652 | 35,002 | 36,351 | 37,743 | 39,175 | 40,650 | 42,185 | 43,777 | 45,431 | 47,147 |
| User-specified scenario | 32,239 | 33,580 | 34,890 | 36,194 | 37,536 | 38,914 | 40,330 | 41,800 | 43,321 | 44,898 | 46,530 |
| Nominal GDP (billions of dollars, by fiscal year) |
| February 2026 baseline | 31,902 | 33,315 | 34,666 | 36,010 | 37,391 | 38,813 | 40,277 | 41,796 | 43,373 | 45,012 | 46,712 |
| User-specified scenario | 31,876 | 33,253 | 34,564 | 35,864 | 37,197 | 38,566 | 39,971 | 41,427 | 42,935 | 44,498 | 46,117 |
| Labor force (millions of people) |
| February 2026 baseline | 172.3 | 173.3 | 174.1 | 175.0 | 175.9 | 176.7 | 177.5 | 178.2 | 178.9 | 179.5 | 180.0 |
| User-specified scenario | 172.3 | 173.2 | 174.1 | 174.9 | 175.7 | 176.5 | 177.3 | 178.0 | 178.6 | 179.1 | 179.7 |
| Interest rate on 10-year Treasury notes (percent) |
| February 2026 baseline | 4.13 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 4.33 | 4.34 | 4.35 | 4.36 | 4.37 | 4.37 | 4.38 | 4.39 |
| User-specified scenario | 4.06 | 4.18 | 4.22 | 4.23 | 4.24 | 4.24 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.26 | 4.26 | 4.27 |
| Inflation (percent) |
| February 2026 baseline | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| User-specified scenario | 2.7 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| GDP price index |
| February 2026 baseline | 132.3 | 135.4 | 138.4 | 141.2 | 144.1 | 146.9 | 149.8 | 152.8 | 155.8 | 158.8 | 162.0 |
| User-specified scenario | 132.3 | 135.4 | 138.4 | 141.2 | 144.1 | 146.9 | 149.8 | 152.8 | 155.8 | 158.8 | 162.0 |
| Employment cost index |
| February 2026 baseline | 180.1 | 186.1 | 192.0 | 197.8 | 203.7 | 209.7 | 215.9 | 222.2 | 228.8 | 235.5 | 242.4 |
| User-specified scenario | 179.9 | 185.8 | 191.5 | 197.1 | 202.7 | 208.5 | 214.4 | 220.5 | 226.8 | 233.2 | 239.7 |

Data source: Congressional Budget Office. For more information, see The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026) and How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036 (April 2026).

Real values are nominal values that have been adjusted to remove the effects of changes in prices.

Unless otherwise noted, values are calendar year averages.

Inflation is measured using the GDP price index.

GDP price index is a summary measure of the prices of all goods and services that make up GDP. It is indexed to 2017 (2017 = 100).

Employment cost index is the employment cost index for wages and salaries of workers in private industry. It is indexed to December 2005 (December 2005 = 100).

Download a copy of this table (.csv)

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Related Publications

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• How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2026 to 2036

April 21, 2026

• The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036

February 11, 2026

• Workbook for How Changes in Economic Conditions Might Affect the Federal Budget: 2025 to 2035

March 13, 2025

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About this Interactive Tool

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Casey Labrack, Dan Ready, and Matthew Wilson developed this interactive tool with guidance from Barry Blom. Jeffrey Kling reviewed it; Christine Bogusz, Lora Engdahl, and Bo Peery edited it; and Maria Aquino and Annette Kalicki integrated it into CBO's website and prepared it for release.

This page was last updated on April 21, 2026.