International Monetary Fund Data

Global Public Debt to Hit 100% by 2029

The IMF's April 2026 Fiscal Monitor reports that global public debt reached just under 94 percent of GDP in 2025 and is projected to hit 100 percent by 2029, one year earlier than the April 2025 projection. The debt accumulation is driven largely by the world's major economies facing mounting spending pressures on social needs, defense, and strategic autonomy, along with rising interest burdens. Structural shifts in sovereign debt markets, including the growing role of leveraged nonbank intermediaries and erosion of the U.S. Treasury's safety premium, are amplifying repricing vulnerabilities.

World Economic Outlook April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War

The IMF World Economic Outlook April 2026 projects global growth to slow to 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027, down from recent outcomes and below pre-pandemic averages. The projection assumes the Middle East conflict remains limited in duration and scope. Global headline inflation is expected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027, with pressures concentrated in emerging market and developing economies, especially commodity importers with pre-existing vulnerabilities.

Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026: Middle East War and Amplification Risks

The IMF April 2026 Global Financial Stability Report assesses elevated financial stability risks arising from the war in the Middle East. The report identifies amplification channels including elevated public debt and short-term sovereign bond rollover risks, carry trade unwinds and capital outflows in emerging markets, high leverage among hedge funds and leveraged ETFs, and AI-related equity valuation concentration. The IMF recommends policymakers ensure liquidity facilities are operationally ready, complete Basel III implementation, strengthen nonbank oversight, and enhance cross-jurisdictional data sharing.