Eurocoin Economic Indicator March 2026

Banca d'Italia Press Releases

Published April 2nd, 2026

Detected April 2nd, 2026

Summary

Banca d'Italia released its €-coin indicator showing a decline to 0.48 in March 2026, down from 0.54 in February. The decrease was attributed to worsening industrial production data and falling stock prices, though the indicator remains at high levels. The €-coin provides a monthly estimate of euro area quarterly GDP growth by filtering out volatile components.

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What changed

Banca d'Italia published the €-coin indicator for March 2026 at 0.48, a decline from 0.54 in February. The drop was driven by deteriorating industrial production figures and declining equity prices, though the indicator remains in positive territory. The €-coin is constructed using macroeconomic time series including industrial production indices, business and household surveys, demand indicators, and stock market indices to estimate the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth.

This is an informational publication only and does not create any compliance obligations or regulatory requirements. Financial analysts, economists, and policymakers tracking euro area economic conditions should note the next publication dates of May 5 and June 4, 2026. No action is required from regulated entities as this indicator serves informational purposes for economic forecasting.

Source document (simplified)

Press Release

By the Communications Directorate

2 April 2026

€-coin falls in March

In March, €-coin - based on a set of variables, some of which were
measured prior to the conflict in the Persian Gulf - slightly fell to 0.48 (from 0.54 in February).
The decline in the indicator - which remains at high levels - was driven by
worsening industrial production data and falling stock prices.
The €-coin indicator developed by Banca d'Italia provides a summary index
of the current economic situation in the euro area. The indicator is an estimate of quarterly GDP growth shorn of the most erratic components (seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility). €-coin is published monthly by Banca d'Italia and CEPR.
The next publication dates for €-coin are Tuesday, 5 May and Thursday, 4
June (to be confirmed).

€-coin and euro-area GDP

Sources: Banca d'Italia and Eurostat. Note: The €-coin series is based on the real time estimates of the indicator at a given date and therefore the series is not revised. On the other hand, the GDP growth rates are calculated on the basis of Eurostat's most recently published series and do reflect any changes in the historical data.

Media Relations Division - Banca d'Italia e-mail: stampabi@bancaditalia.it

€-coin is constructed monthly by using a vast set of macroeconomic time series (e.g. industrial production indices, business and household surveys, demand indicators, and stock market indices) in order to extract the data needed to estimate the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth.

€-coin precedes the official euro-area GDP figure released by Eurostat by several months and gives an early indication of the trend net of any erratic or short-term components. The following table shows the performance of the €-coin indicator over the last year:

For further technical details on €-coin, see 'New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time', The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 1024-1034, available in Banca d'Italia's series Temi di Discussione (Working Papers), 631. http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007- 0631/entema631.pdf Starting in January 2021 a new version of the indicator was published, with some revisions relative to the database and estimate sample. For further details on the revision see: https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/comunicati/documenti/2021- 01/EuroCoinDecember2020ENG.pdf?languageid=1

Media Relations Division - Banca d'Italia e-mail: stampabi@bancaditalia.it

Month €-COIN March 2025 April 2025 May 2025 June 2025 July 2025 August 2025 September 2025 October 2025 November 2025 December 2025 January 2026 February 2026 March 2026 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.26 0.36 0.47 0.48 0.49 0.48 0.52 0.49 0.54 0.48