Estonia Bank

Geopolitical Tensions Impact Global Growth Outlook

Eesti Pank published its Estonian Economy and Monetary Policy 1/2026 report, analysing how increased geopolitical tensions and the outbreak of war in Iran and the wider region on 28 February have disrupted global economic conditions that had been improving through late 2025 and early 2026. The report notes that fuel and commodity prices have jumped, financial markets have become more volatile, bond yields have spiked, and supply chain disruption indexes have risen as geopolitical uncertainty has increased risk premiums. This economic outlook publication is intended for policymakers, financial institutions, and businesses assessing global market conditions.

Educational Assortative Mating and Household Income Inequality: Evidence from Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa

Ana Kujundzic's Working Paper 2/2026 for Eesti Pank examines educational assortative mating and its relationship to household income inequality in four emerging economies: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and South Africa. The paper introduces a new methodological approach that overcomes limitations of standard sorting measures and allows identification of pure sorting trends. Findings indicate that people in these countries tend to sort into internally homogeneous marriages based on education level, and while educational sorting has a noticeable impact on income inequality in any given year, changes in sorting over time barely impact inequality overall due to opposing dynamics between education groups.

Estonian Companies, Households Bank Loan Access Improved

Eesti Pank published its February 2026 Financing of the Economy report, finding that access to bank loans for Estonian companies and households is generally good. Loan growth in Estonia was notably faster than the European average, and company sentiment about the borrowing climate improved in 2025, rising above the European average. The improvement is attributed primarily to interest rate cuts and a stronger economic outlook, with small companies and all sectors, especially real estate and ICT, seeing improved access to funding.