OBBBA Boosts Refunds 10.9%, $23B Increase Total

It’s not every year that a politician promotes tax A tax is a mandatory payment or charge collected by local, state, and national governments from individuals or businesses to cover the costs of general government services, goods, and activities. season. But it’s also not every year that Congress and the president are able to get tax reform across the finish line, and 2026 marks a new season of taxpayers filing under a largely new set of rules.

President Trump is using the occasion to tour the country and tout the larger refunds that families and individuals are seeing. He’s right that average refunds this filing season should be larger. But we’re still living in a country with a tax code that is too complex and with a trade agenda that is eating away at these savings before they even hit bank accounts.

It’s fair—and appropriate—to recognize the progress that Republicans made to the tax code under last year’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA). It staved off an automatic tax increase that was set to hit nearly 62 percent of filers. And with a larger standard deduction The standard deduction reduces a taxpayer’s taxable income by a set amount determined by the government. Taxpayers who take the standard deduction cannot also itemize their deductions; it serves as an alternative. and permanently lower rates for individuals and joint filers, the total amount refunded is running ahead of the past filing season by nearly $23 billion, while the average refund is $3,571, up 10.9 percent from last year.

This is a preview of our full op-ed originally published in Barron’s.

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About the Author

Expert

Daniel Bunn

President and CEO Daniel Bunn is President and CEO of the Tax Foundation. Daniel has been with the organization since 2018 and, prior to becoming President, successfully built its Center for Global Tax Policy, expanding the Tax Foundation’s reach and impact around the world. Prior to joining the Tax Foundation, Daniel worked in the United States Senate at the Joint Economic Committee.

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