2026 Wholesale Gas Reserves Price Assumptions Report
Summary
The AER has published its third annual wholesale gas reserves price assumptions report, containing analysis of contracted and uncontracted reserves price assumptions submitted for calendar year 2025. The analysis identified a downward shift in 2025 contracted reserves price assumptions compared to the prior year, alongside a narrowing of the spread of uncontracted price distributions, which may indicate more consistent forward-view expectations on future gas prices at the time of reporting. The report follows implementation of gas market transparency reforms under the National Gas Amendment (Market Transparency) Rule 2022, which introduced reporting requirements for gas field owners. Data pre-dates the 2026 Middle East conflict so recent geopolitical effects on price assumptions are not reflected.
“Our analysis identified a downward shift in the 2025 contracted reserves price assumptions compared to last year and a narrowing of the spread of the uncontracted price distributions, possibly indicating a more consistent forward view on future gas prices at the time of reporting.”
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What changed
The AER published its third wholesale gas reserves price assumptions report, analysing contracted and uncontracted reserves price assumptions submitted by gas field owners for calendar year 2025. Key findings include a downward shift in contracted reserves price assumptions compared to the prior year and a narrowing of the spread of uncontracted price distributions, suggesting more consistent forward views on future gas prices. The report follows the commencement of the National Gas Amendment (Market Transparency) Rule 2022, which introduced mandatory reporting of gas reserve price assumptions to the AER and gas reserves information to AEMO.
Affected parties include gas field owners, Bulletin Board reporting entities, gas market participants, policy-makers, and regulators in the East Coast Gas Market. While the report does not create binding compliance obligations, it provides transparency around the field operator segment of the gas supply chain and may inform commercial decision-making. The AER is required to publish such reports at least annually under the National Gas Rules.
Archived snapshot
Apr 23, 2026GovPing captured this document from the original source. If the source has since changed or been removed, this is the text as it existed at that time.
AER releases 2026 Wholesale gas reserves price assumptions report
Type Communications Sector Gas Segment Wholesale Issue date
15 April 2026
Contacts AER Wholesale Gas Surveillance - Gas Markets Bulletin Board The AER has published its third wholesale gas reserves price assumptions report.
This report contains analysis of the contracted and uncontracted reserves price assumptions submitted to the AER for calendar year 2025, including a high-level, location-based analysis of uncontracted prices.
As the price assumptions are for the 2025 calendar year, the data pre-dates the 2026 Middle East conflict so any effect on price assumptions related to recent events will not be reflected in this report.
Our analysis identified a downward shift in the 2025 contracted reserves price assumptions compared to last year and a narrowing of the spread of the uncontracted price distributions, possibly indicating a more consistent forward view on future gas prices at the time of reporting.
Background
This report follows the implementation of gas market transparency reforms and the commencement of the National Gas Amendment (Market Transparency) Rule 2022, which introduced reporting requirements for gas field owners.
Under the National Gas Rules, gas field owners are required to report to the AER on the gas reserve price assumptions used to prepare gas reserves estimates. Simultaneously Bulletin Board (BB) reporting entities are required to submit their gas reserves and resources information to AEMO.
The AER is required to publish, at least annually, on the price assumptions used by gas field owners.
The AER’s reserves price assumptions publications are intended to help build transparency around the field operator segment of the gas supply chain, informing gas market participants, policy-makers and regulators in the East Coast Gas Market.
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