Philadelphia Fed Launches PIES Dashboard for Business Inflation Expectations

News Release

Philadelphia Fed Launches New Tool to Visualize Firm-Level Price and Inflation Expectations

15 Dec ’25

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's new interactive dashboard makes it easier to analyze businesses’ expectations for prices and inflation over the past 10 years. New data will be added to the Price and Inflation Expectations Survey tool quarterly.

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• For immediate release

Contact: Sarah Katz, Media Relations

Philadelphia – The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia today launched the Price and Inflation Expectations Survey (PIES) data explorer, which provides access to the last 10 years of firm-level expectations data. The launch also includes the first report in a new quarterly release, which summarizes the survey results from the fourth quarter of 2025.

PIES asks business leaders in Delaware, southern New Jersey, and eastern and central Pennsylvania to provide forecasts on changes in their products’ prices, employee compensation, and U.S. inflation. Respondents also report on the observed price changes in their products over the past year. Alongside other surveys, PIES helps to create a fuller picture of inflation expectations across the economy and can aid economic analysis and decision-making.

PIES provides one of the longest time series of firms’ own price and U.S. inflation expectations. The PIES questions originally appeared as quarterly special questions in the Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Surveys from 2015 through November 2025. Now, with the launch of a dedicated PIES data explorer and report, users can access all data collected since the fourth quarter of 2015 in one centralized location, making it easier to track and understand trends over time.

The data explorer also allows users to filter results from manufacturing firms, nonmanufacturing firms, or all firms. The “all firms” option combines data from both sectors, providing a more complete view of overall business expectations.

Insights from the Fourth Quarter 2025 Results

PIES results from the fourth quarter of 2025 showed:

• Compared with firms’ third quarter expectations and reported fourth quarter price growth, firms expect a smaller rise in their own prices: For the fourth quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2026, the firms’ mean forecast for their own prices was an increase of 2.6 percent, down from 3.3 percent last quarter. Additionally, firms reported a mean price increase of 3.0 percent for the fourth quarter of 2025.
• Firms expect a steady rise in compensation costs relative to the third quarter of 2025: Consistent with results from the third quarter of 2025, firms expect compensation costs per employee to rise 3.3 percent through the fourth quarter of 2026.
• Firms expect lower U.S. inflation relative to last quarter’s expectation: Firms’ median expectation for U.S. inflation over the next four quarters declined to 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent, its second consecutive decrease and lowest reading in a year. Read more about the fourth quarter 2025 results here. Or learn more about PIES in Economic Insights.

About the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia helps formulate and implement monetary policy; supervises state member banks, bank holding companies, and savings and loan holding companies; and provides financial services to depository institutions and the federal government. It is one of the 12 regional Reserve Banks that, together with the Board of Governors in Washington, DC, make up the Federal Reserve System. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia serves eastern and central Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey, and Delaware.