Maldives GDP Grows 8.6% in Q3 2025, Tourist Arrivals Up 16%

About the Economic Update

Economic Update is a monthly publication produced by the Centre for Central Banking Research of MMA presenting a quick overview of current developments in the Maldivian economy. It also includes a chart pack of global economic and financial indicators. The Economic Update will be posted on MMA's website at the end of each month. This Economic Update is based on the latest available data as at 30 March 2026.

Domestic Economic Developments

Real Economy

Gross Domestic Product

•According to the advance estimates of the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) for Q3-2025 released by the Maldives Bureau of Statistics (MBS), real GDP grew by 8.6% in Q3-2025, compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024. This is a slight deceleration from the growth of 9.0% recorded in Q2-2025. - The annual growth in real GDP during Q3-2025 was mainly driven by the expansion in the tourism and fisheries sector. Growths were also observed in sectors such as financial services, transportation and communication, human health and social work as well as manufacturing. Additionally, arts, entertainment, recreation and other services, real estate, public administration, electricity, water and waste management, construction as well as wholesale and retail trade sectors also registered growth during the quarter.Annual GDP Growth Forecast

• According to the growth forecasts for October 2025 , real GDP is 1projected to grow by 5.4% in 2025. Growth forecast for 2025 have been revised downwards, compared to the forecasts produced in October 2024. As per the revised estimates of real GDP released by the Maldives Bureau of Statistics in October 2025, following a growth of 4.9% in 2023, the annual real GDP is estimated to have grown in 2024 by 3.5%--2.0 percentage points lower than the estimate of October

1. In 2024, real GDP growth was led primarily by the expansion of the tourism sector, together with positive contributions from public administration, real estate, and transportation and communication sectors.

According to the growth forecast scenarios estimated jointly by the MMA and the Ministry of1Finance and Planning.

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Tourism

• In February 2026, total tourist arrivals stood at 247,722, registering an
  increase of 16% when compared with the corresponding month of 2025. Meanwhile, total tourist bednights rose by 8%, primarily owing to the increase in bednights of guesthouses. During the month, guesthouse bednights increased by 42%, while resort bednights remained broadly unchanged. - The annual increase in tourist arrivals largely reflected robust arrivals from China. During the month, the highest number of tourist arrivals were recorded from China, Russia, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Germany.

• The operational bed capacity of the tourism industry observed an
  annual increase of 5,363 beds in February 2026, while the occupancy rate decreased to 77% in February 2026, from 78% in February 2025.

• Overall, for the period January to February 2026, total tourist arrivals
  rose by 10% in annual terms, while total bednights increased by 7%. During February 2026, the average stay slightly increased to 6.9 days, from 6.8 days in the corresponding period of 2025.

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Inflation

• The rate of inflation, as measured by the annual percentage change in
  the national CPI decelerated markedly to 0.4% in December 2025, from 1.4% recorded in November 2025. - The largest contribution to the annual rate of inflation during December 2025 came from fish (0.43 percentage points); restaurants and cafés (0.29 percentage points); fruits (0.22 percentage points); dairy products (0.15 percentage points); other food products (0.09 percentage points); personal care appliances, articles and products (0.08 percentage points); mobile telephone equipment (-0.09 percentage points); motorcycles (-0.09 percentage points); vegetables (-0.20 percentage points); and electricity (-0.80 percentage points).

• The monthly percentage change in the national CPI stood at 0.2% in
  December 2025, from 0.0% recorded in November 2025. - The largest contribution to the monthly rate of inflation came from vegetables (0.15 percentage points); mobile communication services (0.07 percentage points); dairy products (0.06 percentage points); fish (0.05 percentage points); pets and products for pets (0.04 percentage points); fruits (0.02 percentage points); hairdressing salons and personal grooming establishments (-0.01 percentage points); personal care appliances, articles and products (-0.02 percentage points); furniture, furnishings and loose carpets (-0.05 percentage points); and electricity (-0.16 percentage points).

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Public Finance

• Total revenue (excluding grants) observed an increase of MVR788.0
  million (or 27%) in December 2025 when compared with December 2024, owing to the increase in tax revenue as well as non-tax revenue. As such, tax revenue increased by MVR540.3 million, while non-tax revenue increased by MVR248.8 million.

• Total expenditure (excluding amortisation) increased by MVR818.3
  million (or 14%) in December 2025 when compared with December 2024, primarily stemming from the increase in recurrent expenditure, which increased by MVR1.3 billion. Meanwhile, capital expenditure declined by MVR434.7 million in December 2025, when compared with December 2024.

• According to the latest available data, the stock of total government
  debt (excluding government guaranteed debt) amounted to MVR134.4 billion at the end of Q4-2025, a 3% increase from Q3-2025. Similarly, total government debt as a percentage of GDP rose to 115% at the end of Q4-2025, from 112% in Q3-2025. - During this period, the increase in government debt was primarily driven by domestic debt.

Government revenue and expenditure data as of 22 February 2026. These figures might vary2due to ongoing data reconciliation.

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Monetary Developments

Reserve Money

• Reserve money (M0) increased by 3% at the end of February 2026,
  following a 14% increase registered in January 2026. This mainly reflected the annual increase in net foreign assets, which entirely offset the decline in net domestic assets during the period. - Net foreign assets increased, primarily owing to the increase in foreign asset accumulation, despite the marginal increase in foreign liabilities. Meanwhile, net domestic assets declined, mainly reflecting the decline in net claims on central government.Broad Money

• Broad money (M2) registered a growth of 20% at the end of January
  2026, after recording a growth of 21% at the end of December 2025. - On the components side, the annual increase in broad money mainly reflected the significant increase in time deposits denominated in local and foreign currency, followed by an increase in transferable deposits denominated in local currency and savings deposits denominated in local currency. Meanwhile, currency outside depository corporations rose during the month. -As for the sources, the growth in broad money was primarily driven by the increase in net domestic assets, mainly owing to the increase in net claims on the central government by the commercial banks, together with the increase in credit to the private sector. Meanwhile, net foreign assets also increased, as the increase in foreign asset accumulation outpaced the increase in foreign liabilities during the period.

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Credit to Private Sector

•The annual growth rate of credit to the private sector by the commercial banks registered 13% at the end of January 2026, remaining broadly unchanged from 13% recorded in December 2025. - As such, credit to major sectors (namely tourism, personal loans, construction, commerce and real estate) continued to expand in January 2026. Tourism sector registered the highest growth during the month, with an annual increase of 13% and continued to account for the largest share of bank credit with 35%. - The annual growth in credit for the tourism sector was driven by an increase in credit lent for working capital, new resort development, renovation of resorts and guesthouses.

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Interest rates

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External Trade

• Total exports (f.o.b) declined by 11% in January 2026, when compared
  with January 2025, whereas total imports (c.i.f) increased by 17% during the same period. - The annual decline in total exports stemmed primarily from the decline in re-exports, largely owing to lower earnings from the re-export of jet fuel. Similarly, domestic exports also declined during the period, which reflected lower earnings from frozen skipjack tuna, which completely offset the increase in earnings from frozen yellowfin tuna and fresh or chilled yellowfin tuna. - The annual increase in import expenditure stemmed from the increase in imports of petroleum products, machinery and mechanical appliances and parts as well as food items. In contrast, imports of transport equipment and parts as well as furniture, fixtures and fittings declined during the period.

• Overall, for the year 2025, total exports increased by 16%, while total
  imports remained broadly unchanged when compared with the corresponding period of 2024.

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Gross International Reserves

• Gross international reserves (official reserve assets) increased to 3US$1.3 billion at the end of February 2026, from US$1.0 billion at the end of January 2026. Additionally, this depicted a growth of US$439.5 million from the US$832.1 million recorded at the end of February 2025. - In terms of growth rates, increases of 53% and 24% were registered when compared with February 2025 and January 2026, respectively.

Comprises foreign currency deposits of the MMA and the government, commercial banks' US3dollar reserve accounts and Maldives' reserve position at the IMF.

Economic Update - March 2026 | 9International Economic Developments

Global Output

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Global Inflation

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Commodity Prices Global Trade

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Global Financial Markets

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Global Financial Markets

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Boduthakurufaanu Magu Male' - 20182 Republic of Maldives Tel: (960) 3312343 Fax: (960) 3323862 Email: mail@mma.gov.mv Website: www.mma.gov.mv