Italian Economic Overview: GDP, Inflation, Labor, Trade

Number 4 2026 April CONTENTS

Economic activity and labor market 2 1 Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP 2 GDP and the main components of demand 3 GDP, national demand, foreign trade 4 Industrial production and business confidence 5 Firms' assessment of the conditions for investing 6 Household confidence index and unemployment expectations 7 Household income and saving 8 Main labour market indicators 9 Contractual earnings and labour costs per hour worked Prices 5 10 Consumer price inflation and contributions of the main components 11 Indicators of inflation 12 House prices and sales Exports, price competitiveness and balance of payments 6 13 Value of goods exports 14 Indicators of competitiveness 15 Balance of payments 16 Current account balance and its main components 17 TARGET balance and cumulative balance of payments flows 18 Net international investment position Households' and firms' financial conditions 9 19 Financial debt of households 20 Indicators of firms' borrowing 21 Firms' financial debt Credit and banks 10 22 Bank lending to the private sector 23 Interest rates on new loans 24 Credit access conditions for firms 25 Growth in bank funding: contributions of the various components 26 Banks' funding gap 27 New non-performing loan rates 28 Non-performing loans 29 Banks' investment in Italian public sector securities 30 Main profit and loss items of banks 31 Capitalization of banks and banking groups 32 Capital and liquidity indicators of the banking system 33 Share prices and CDS spreads of listed banks The public finances and government debt financing conditions 17 34 Main public finance indicators 35 Main public finance indicators (European comparison) 36 Government securities - stocks 37 Average cost and average residual maturity of the public debt 38 Government benchmark securities: gross yields at maturity 39 Yield spreads between euro-area countries and German 10-year government bonds Macroeconomic projections 20 40 Growth and inflation forecasts

THE ITALIAN ECONOMY IN BRIEF Directorate General for Economics, Statistics and Research

1 - Coincident indicator (Ita-coin) and Italian GDP

(percentage changes)

1. Monthly estimates of changes in GDP on the previous quarter net of the most erratic components. Further details are available on the Banca d'Italia website: 'Ita-coin coincident cyclical indicator' https://www.bancaditalia.it/statistiche/tematiche/indicatori/indicatore-ciclico- coincidente/index.html?com.dotmarketing.htmlpage.language=1 . Since November 2019, the dataset used for the Ita-coin estimate has been expanded with new data on services, which has meant adjusting the indicator profile. - (2) Quarterly data; percentage change on previous quarter.

2 - GDP and the main components of demand (1)

(quarterly data; indices 2007=100)

(1) Chain-linked volumes adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.

3 - GDP, national demand, foreign trade (1)

(percentage changes on previous period) GrossGross fixed Resident Government Total national Exports of Imports of domesticinvestment household consumption demand (3) goods and goods and product and NPISH services services consumption (2) 2022 4.8 7.4 5.3 0.8 5.6 9.9 12.9 2023 0.9 10.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 -0.2 -1.9 2024 0.8 -3.1 1.2 1.5 0.6 -0.4 -1.0 2025 0.5 3.5 1.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 3.6 2025 - Q1 0.3 1.4 0.1 -0.2 0.0 2.7 1.6 2025 - Q2 0.0 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.7 -1.7 0.5130 4 130 42025 - Q3 0.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 2.1 2.0

120 120 2025 - Q4 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.2 1.0 -1.2 1.0 2 2 Source: Istat. 14.2110 110 (1) Chain-linked volumes; quarterly data are adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. - (2) Non-profit institutions serving households. - (3) Including 0 0 changes in inventories and valuables.100 100 −2 −2 90 90

80 80−4 −4 −6 −6

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 2−8 −8GDP Household consumption Exports Ita−coin (1) GDP (2)Gross fixed investment Gross fixed investment excluding construction −12.5

4 - Industrial production and business confidence (1)

(indices 2021=100; seasonally adjusted monthly data)

(1) Following the operational difficulties linked to the Covid-19 emergency, the survey on Business confidence index for April 2020 was not conducted.

5 - Firms' assessment of the conditions for investing (1)

(quarterly data; percentage points)

Source: Banca d'Italia, Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations (in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore up to October 2018). (1) Balance of positive and negative responses compared with the previous quarter.

6 - Household confidence index and unemployment expectations (1)

(raw monthly data; indices 2021=100 and percentage points)

30 140 25 130 20 120110 30 30 140 15 110 20 20105 120 10 10 10 100100 100 0 0 5 90 95 80−10 −10 (1) Following the operational difficulties linked to the Covid-19 emergency, the survey for April 2020 was not conducted. In June 2013 Istat introduced 0 80 methodological changes and so, as a result, subsequent data cannot be directly compared with those preceding that date. - (2) Balances of positive−20 90 −20 60 −5 70 responses ('high', 'increasing') and negative responses ('low', 'decreasing'). −30 −30 85 40−10 60 −40 −40−15 50 80 20−50 −50−202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025'26−60 −60 Industrial production, quarterly averages, percentage changes on previous period−70 −70 −202006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 Industrial production, single observations (right−hand scale) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 3 Business confidence index (industrial firms), single observations (right−hand scale) All firms Industrial firms Service firms Household confidence index Unemployment expectations (right−hand scale) (2)

7 - Household income and saving

(seasonally adjusted quarterly data)

(1) Net of the variation in the final consumption expenditure deflator for resident households. Indices: 2015=100. - (2) Consumer households' savings as a percentage of gross disposable income; 4-term moving average.

8 - Main labour market indicators

(seasonally adjusted monthly data; per cent, unless otherwise specified) (a) Italy: Employment; activity rate (b) Euro area: Unemployment rate

Sources: (a) Istat's labour force survey; (b) Eurostat; for Italy, Istat's labour force survey. (1) Millions of persons.

9 - Contractual earnings and labour costs per hour worked (1)

(year-on-year percentage changes) (a) Non-farm private sector (b) Total economy

25 681101212 12 12 2030 30 1010 10 10108 1825 25 8 8 8 810624 66 16 6 6 6 620 20104 14 4 4 4 4 Source: Istat's national accounts and contractual earnings survey.10223 64 1215 15 (1) Raw monthly data for contractual earnings; seasonally adjusted quarterly data for hourly labour costs. Labour costs include gross wages and social 2 2 2 2 security contributions.100 10 0 0 0 010 1022 98 62 8−2−2 −2 −2 −4−4 −4 −4 −6−6 −6 −6'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '26−8−8 −8 −820152016201720182019202020212022202320242025'2620152016201720182019202020212022202320242025'26 Employment (1) Real gross disposable income, single observations (1) Real gross disposable income, 4−term moving average (1) Euro area France Germany Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 4 Activity rate 15−64 (right−hand scale) Contractual earnings Labour cost Contractual earnings Labour cost Propensity to save (right−hand scale) (2) Italy Spain

PRICES

10 - Consumer price inflation and contributions of the main components (1)

(monthly data; 12-month percentage changes and percentage points)

Source: based on Eurostat data. (1) Harmonized index of consumer prices. - (2) Includes non-food and non-energy products, and services. - (3) Includes food and energy products.

11 - Indicators of inflation

(monthly data; 12-month percentage changes) HICP (1) PPI (2) Italy Euro area Italy Overall index Excl. Energy and Overall index Excl. Energy and Overall Index food food 2024 2.4 1.1 2.2 2.8 -5.7 2025 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.7 2025 - May 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.7 June 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.9 July 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.4 Aug. 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.3 0.5 Sept. 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.4 1.5 Oct. 1.3 1.9 2.1 2.4 0.2 Nov. 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.4 -0.3 Dec. 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.3 -2.0 2026 - Jan. 1.0 1.8 1.7 2.2 -2.1 Feb. 1.5 2.7 1.9 2.4 -3.7 Mar. (3) 1.5 1.9 2.5 2.3 Source: based on Istat and Eurostat data. (1) Harmonized index of consumer prices. - (2) Index of producer prices of industrial products sold on the domestic market. - (3) Preliminary data.

12 - House prices and sales

(quarterly data; indices 2015=100)

14200 200 14 12 12180 180 10 10 160 160 8 8 Sources: Based on data from Osservatorio del Mercato Immobiliare (OMI) of the Italian Revenue Agency, Banca d'Italia, Istat and Consulente Immobiliare. (1) House prices deflated by the consumer price index. - (2) Adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.140 6 140 6 4 4120 120 2 2 −2 −22009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 5 Core component (2) Volatile components (3) Total Prices Real prices (1) Number of sales (2)

13 - Value of goods exports (1)

(seasonally adjusted monthly data) (a) Italy (b) Euro area

Source: Based on Eurostat and Istat data. (1) Indices: Q4 2011=100; 3-month moving averages. Starting from February 2020, the United Kingdom is included in the non-EU aggregate.

14 - Indicators of competitiveness (1)

(monthly data; indices 2014=100)

Sources: Based on ECB, CEPII, Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UN data and national statistics. (1) In relation to 60 competitor countries; based on producer prices of manufactured goods and weighted by manufactured goods trade flows. An increase in an index indicates a loss of competitiveness.

180180106 180 180 106 170170 170 170104 104160160 160 160 150150 150 150102 102 140140 140 140 100 100130130 130 130 120120 120 120 98 98 110110 110 110 96 96100100 100 100

'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25'26'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25'262014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 6EU countries non−EU countries TotalItaly (Istat) France Germany Euro areaItaly Germany Spain France

15 - Balance of payments

(net balances; billions of euros) Current account Net Financial account Capital lending/bor- Errors andTotal of which: Total of which:account rowing to omissions the rest ofGoods Portfolio Change in the world invest- reserve ment assets A B A+B C C-(A+B) 2022 -36.6 -26.2 10.7 -25.9 -7.7 169.6 2.0 18.2 2023 5.3 36.9 16.6 21.9 34.0 -23.8 2.7 12.1 2024 24.1 54.7 0.3 24.4 51.3 -78.0 2.1 26.9 2025 25.0 51.5 3.9 28.9 27.9 -33.3 1.7 -1.1 2025 Jan. - Jan. -4.5 0.2 0.1 -4.4 3.3 -0.7 -0.7 7.6 2026 Jan. - Jan. -1.8 1.2 0.8 -1.0 2.7 -3.2 0.0 3.6 2025 - Jan. -4.5 0.2 0.1 -4.4 3.3 -0.7 -0.7 7.6 Feb. 1.1 4.5 0.1 1.2 -4.9 -18.3 0.1 -6.2 Mar. 0.3 3.8 -0.1 0.2 -10.4 17.8 0.1 -10.6 Apr. 1.1 3.3 0.0 1.1 0.4 -5.0 0.9 -0.7 May 1.9 6.2 0.0 1.9 1.0 0.1 1.0 -1.0 June 6.6 5.6 0.4 7.0 7.1 -37.8 0.3 0.0 July 7.8 7.8 -0.3 7.5 17.9 16.6 -0.3 10.4 Aug. 3.1 2.8 -0.3 2.8 1.2 11.4 -0.7 -1.6 Sept. 2.7 3.2 -0.6 2.1 -6.8 -2.5 1.3 -8.9 Oct. 3.6 4.0 1.8 5.4 10.8 -17.8 -1.8 5.4 Nov. -1.7 4.5 1.6 -0.1 -7.8 -11.4 0.6 -7.6 Dec. 3.0 5.8 1.2 4.2 16.0 14.3 0.9 11.8 2026 - Jan. -1.8 1.2 0.8 -1.0 2.7 -3.2 0.0 3.6

16 - Current account balance and its main components

(per cent of GDP; 4-quarter moving average)

Source: Istat for GDP; based on Istat foreign trade data for the breakdown between energy and non-energy products. 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 −2 −2 −4 −4 −6 −62011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Goods Services Primary income Secondary incomeBanca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 7Current account Energy products Non−energy products

17 - TARGET balance and cumulative balance of payments flows (1)

(monthly data; billions of euros)

(1) Using the balance of payments accounting identity, an improvement in the Banca d'Italia's debtor balance vis-à-vis the ECB in the TARGET payment system may reflect investment in Italy by non-residents (greater liabilities), residents' disposals of foreign assets (lower assets) or a current account and capital account surplus. Cumulative flows since July 2011. - (2) Net funding in the form of loans, deposits and other investments by the banking sector, including those intermediated by resident central counterparties. - (3) Direct investment, financial derivatives, other investment, official reserves, errors and omissions.

18 - Net international investment position (1)

(percentage of GDP)

Source: Istat, for GDP. (1) The net position at the end of the quarter equals the net position at the end of the previous quarter corrected for financial account flows during the quarter and for valuation adjustments.

1,000 1,000 800 800 20 20 600 600 400 400 15 15 200 200 0 0 10 10 −200 −200 −400 −400 5 5 −600 −600 −800 −800 0 0−1,000 −1,000 −1,200 −1,200 −5 −5−1,400 −1,400 '11 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 Current and capital account balance Italian investment in foreign securities (opposite sign)−10 −10 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Foreign investment in Italian private sector securities (excl. bank bonds) Foreign investment in Italian bank bonds Net position at the end of the previous quarter Flow in the quarter (financial account) Foreign investment in Italian public sector securities Resident banks' net foreign funding (2) Valuation adjustment in the quarter Other items (3) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 8 Net position at the end of the quarter TARGET (end of month)

HOUSEHOLDS' AND FIRMS' FINANCIAL CONDITIONS

19 - Financial debt of households (1)

(per cent of gross disposable income)

Sources: Banca d'Italia and Istat for Italy, ECB for euro-area countries, Office for National Statistics and Bank of England for the United Kingdom, Federal Reserve System - Board of Governors and Bureau of Economic Analysis for the United States. (1) Data refer to consumer and producer households; for the United States data refer to only consumer households. End-of-period data.

20 - Indicators of firms' borrowing (1)

Sources: Banca d'Italia (Financial Accounts) and analyses of Istat data, National Accounts by institutional sector. (1) Data refer to non-financial corporations sector. - (2) Leverage is calculated as the ratio of financial debts (bank loans, bonds, other loans) to the sum of financial debts and shareholders' equity at market prices. End-of-period data. - (3) 4-quarter cumulative data (right-hand scale).

21 - Firms' financial debt (1)

(as a percentage of GDP)

14050250 140 250 25 120 120200 20040 20100 100 150 150 80 8030 15 60 60100 10020 10 40 40 Source: based on ECB data. (1) The data refer to the non-financial corporations sector. End-of-period data. 50 50 20 2010 5 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 2012 2020 2025 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q32005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Q3 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 9 Leverage − bank loans (2) Leverage − other loans (2) Leverage − bonds (2) Net interest expense/EBITDA (3) Loans for house purchase Consumer credit Other debt Loans Debt securities United Kingdom United States Netherlands Euro area Euro area Germany Germany Belgium France France Spain Spain Italy Italy

22 - Bank lending to the private sector (1)

(monthly data; 12-month percentage changes)

Source: Supervisory reports. (1) Includes bad debts, repos and loans not recorded in banks' balance sheets because they have been securitized. The percentage changes are net of reclassifications, exchange rate variations, value adjustments and other variations not due to transactions; operations concluded with central counterparties are excluded.

23 - Interest rates on new loans (1)

(monthly data; per cent)

Source: Based on Banca d'Italia and ECB data. (1) Averages. Data refer only to transactions in euros and are gathered and processed using the Eurosystem's harmonized method.

6 10 10 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 0 0 3 3 2 2 −5 −5

−10 −10Italy: loans to firms Euro area: loans to firms Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 10Italy: loans to households for house purchase Euro area: loans to households for house purchase Non−financial corporations Households Private sector

24 - Credit access conditions for firms

(a) Total

(quarterly data)

(b) By firm size (2) (3) (4)

(quarterly data)

(1) Source: Banca d'Italia, Survey on inflation and growth expectations (in collaboration with Il Sole 24 Ore up to October 2018); firms in industry (excluding constructions) and services. - (2) Net percentage of firms reporting difficulty in obtaining credit. - (3) Source: Istat, Monthly business confidence survey in the manufacturing sector. - (4) Last survey in the quarter. - (5) Source: Banca d'Italia, the euro area bank lending survey. Degree of credit supply tightening compared with the previous quarter (diffusion index).

50 50 1.0 50 40 0.8 40 40 30 0.6 30 30 20 0.4 20 20 10 0.2 10 10 0 0.0 0 0 −10 −0.2−10 −10 −20 −0.4 −20 −20 Banca d'Italia survey (1) (2) Istat survey (2) (3) (4) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 11 Bank Lending Survey, Italian banks (right−hand scale) (5) Up to 49 workers 50−249 workers 249 workers or more Total

25 - Growth in bank funding: contributions of the various components (1)

(percentage points and 12-month percentage changes)

Source: Supervisory reports. (1) The sum of the contributions is equal to the percentage change over 12 months in the total funds raised. The percentage changes in the single components are calculated net of reclassifications, exchange-rate variations, value adjustments and other variations not due to transactions. Net liabilities towards central counterparties are the funds raised by way of repos with non-residents via central counterparties.

26 - Banks' funding gap (1)

(billions of euros and per cent)

Source: Supervisory reports. Data includes only those reported by credit intermediaries registered in the Banca d'Italia's supervisory register, excluding branches of foreign banks. (1) Difference between lending to residents and retail funding (residents' deposits plus bank bonds subscribed by households). - (2) Right-hand scale (billions).

15 25 500 15 12 12 20 400 9 9 15 300 6 6 10 200 3 3 5 100 0 0 0 0 −3 −3 −5 −100 −6 −6−10 −200 −9 −9−15 −300 −12 −12−20 −400 −15 −15−25 −5002011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 Deposits of residents Retail bonds Wholesale bonds Total funds raised Funding gap (2) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 12 Deposits of non−residents Net liabilities towards central counterparties Eurosystem refinancing Funding gap as a percentage of lending Lending to residents (12−month growth) Retail funding (12−month growth)

27 - New non-performing loan rates (1)

(quarterly data; per cent)

Source: Central Credit Register. (1) Annualized quarterly flows of adjusted NPLs in relation to the stock of loans net of adjusted NPLs at the end of the previous quarter. Data seasonally adjusted where necessary.

28 - Non-performing loans (1)

(a) Italian banking system: total amount (2) (b) Significant banks: share of total loans

(billions of euros and per cent)

Sources: Supervisory reports, on a consolidated basis for banking groups and on an individual basis for the rest of the Italian banking system; ECB, Supervisory Banking Statistics for the euro area. (1) Includes loans to customers, credit intermediaries and central banks. End of period data. Amounts and ratios are calculated net and gross of provisions. - (2) Includes banking groups and banks subsidiaries of foreign intermediaries; excludes branches of foreign banks. - (3) Right-hand scale, per cent.

30015 15.0 15 250 12.512 1210 10 200 10.0 9 9 8 8150 7.5 6 6100 5.0 6 6 3 3 50 2.5 4 4 0 0.0 0 02017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025'17 '17 '18 '18 '19 '19 '20 '20 '21 '21 '22 '22 '23 '23 '24 '24 '25Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Dec. Jun. Bad loans (gross amount) Euro area (gross) NPLs other than bad loans (gross amount) Italy (gross) Bad loans (net amount)2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Euro area (net) NPLs other than bad loans (net amount) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 13 Households Firms Total Italy (net) NPL gross ratio (3) NPL net ratio (3)

29 - Banks' investment in Italian public sector securities (1)

(monthly data; billions of euros; per cent)

Source: Individual supervisory reports. (1) All public sector securities, including those issued by local authorities. Data includes only those reported by credit intermediaries registered in the Banca d'Italia's supervisory register. The stock of Italian public sector securities in portfolios was revised starting in 2013, following the extension of the perimeter of general government as defined by Istat in agreement with Eurostat. - (2) Includes the cooperative credit banks merged into cooperative credit banking groups. - (3) Twelve-month moving average ending in the month indicated. The series 'total assets' does not include repurchased self-issued bonds. Right-hand scale.

30 - Main profit and loss items of banks (1)

Sources: Consolidated supervisory reports for banking groups, individual supervisory reports for stand-alone banks. (1) As a ratio to average equity in the year; percentage points. For the definition of the items, see the Section Methodological Note of the Appendix of the 2024 Annual Report (available only in Italian).

480 50 12 14 40 12 30 10400 10 20 8 10 6320 8 0 4 −10 2240 6 −20 0 −30 −2160 4 −40 −4 −50 −6 80 2 −60 −8 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Net interest income Net fee income Other non−fee income 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 Operating expenses Net write downs Goodwill impairments Italian subsidiaries of significant foreign banks Rest of the System Italian significant banking groups (2) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 14 ROE net of extraordinary components (right−hand scale) Public sector securities/total assets (3)

31 - Capitalization of banks and banking groups

(indices and per cent)

Sources: Consolidated supervisory reports for banking groups, individual supervisory reports for stand-alone banks. (1) Up to 2013, the highest-quality capital component was the 'core tier 1'; since 2014 it corresponds to CET1 ('common equity tier 1'). Index: 2007=100. - (2) 'Risk-Weighted Assets'. Index: 2007=100.

32 - Capital and liquidity indicators of the banking system

(per cent; reference date: September 2025) CET1 Total Capital Leverage Liquidity Coverage Net Stable Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Funding Ratio

Total Simple Average 27.14 28.17 10.98 590.74 170.87 Weighted Average 15.74 19.65 6.29 178.04 133.66 Standard Deviation 20.95 20.46 6.36 757.61 60.51 1 Quartile 16.96 18.78 6.40 234.12 139.50 Median 22.87 23.03 9.19 382.52 155.90 3 Quartile 31.11 31.35 14.32 702.41 181.93 Significant banks Simple Average 19.08 22.46 6.78 289.75 173.04 Weighted Average 15.84 19.92 6.03 167.67 131.82 Standard Deviation 5.35 4.78 1.79 242.28 90.80 1 Quartile 14.76 18.97 5.22 157.71 127.51 Median 16.59 19.86 6.34 168.76 136.00 3 Quartile 23.93 26.45 8.58 299.19 174.29 Less significant banks Simple Average 28.48 29.13 11.55 617.62 170.68 Weighted Average 18.78 20.56 7.43 273.32 149.34 Standard Deviation 22.01 21.68 6.63 781.77 57.02 1 Quartile 17.67 18.88 6.58 251.66 141.61 Median 23.23 24.00 9.57 415.76 156.66 3 Quartile 34.52 34.52 15.08 744.90 184.67 Source: Consolidated supervisory reports for banking groups, individual supervisory reports for stand-alone banks. From April 2025, the methodology for calculating the Liquidity Coverage Ratio and Net Stable Funding Ratio data was changed, aligning it with that used in other official publications of Banca d'Italia. Following the new methodology, the data previously published in the April 2024 to March 2025 editions were also changed.170 17 160 16 150 15 140 14 130 13 120 12 110 11 100 10 90 9 80 8 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 JuneBanca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 15CET1 (1) RWA (2) CET1 ratio (right−hand scale)

33 - Share prices and CDS spreads of listed banks

(daily data) (a) Bank indices (indices 1 January 2007=100)

(b) CDS spreads

(basis points)

Source: Refinitiv and ICE Data Derivatives UK ltd. With reference to data provided by ICE Data Derivatives UK Limited, the supplier has requested publication of the following disclaimer: "The data referenced herein is the property of ICE Data Derivatives UK Limited, its affiliates and/or their respective third party suppliers ("ICE and its Third Party Suppliers") and is used with permission. This material contains information that is confidential and proprietary property and/or trade secrets of ICE and its Third Party Suppliers and is not to be published, reproduced, copied, disclosed, or used without the express written consent of ICE and its Third Party Suppliers. ICE and its Third Party Suppliers does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy, completeness or availability of any information and is not responsible for any errors or omissions, regardless of the cause or for the results obtained from the use of such information. ICE and its Third Party Suppliers accepts no liability in connection with the use of this data or marks. ICE and its Third Party Suppliers disclaim any and all express or implied warranties, including, but not limited to, any warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose or use. In no event shall ICE and its Third Party Suppliers be liable for any direct, indirect, special or consequential damages, costs, expenses, legal fees, or losses (including lost income or lost profit and opportunity costs) in connection with the Banca d'Italia's or others' use of ICE and its Third Party Suppliers' data or services. ICE and its Third Party Suppliers do not sponsor, endorse, or recommend any part of this research and/or presentation".

120600 120 600 100500 100 500 400 80 80 400 300 60 60 300 200 40 40 200

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '262007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 16Italy Germany FranceItaly Germany France

34 - Main public finance indicators

(per cent of GDP) (a) General government balances (b) General government gross debt

Source: Istat (for the items of general government consolidated accounts and GDP) and Banca d'Italia (for debt). (1) Overall balance net of interest payments.

35 - Main public finance indicators (European comparison)

(per cent of GDP) 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Overall balance Italy -1.5 -9.4 -8.9 -8.1 -7.1 -3.4 -3.1 n.a. France -8.9 -6.6 -4.7 -5.4 -5.8 -5.5 -4.9-2.4 Germany1.3 -4.4 -3.2 -1.9 -2.5 -2.7 -3.1 -4.0 Spain -3.1 -9.9 -6.7 -4.6 -3.3 -3.2 -2.5 -2.1 Euro area -7.0 -5.1 -3.4 -3.5 -3.3-0.5 -3.1 -3.2 Primary balance (1) Italy1.9 -6.0 -5.5 -4.0 -3.5 0.5 0.8 n.a. France -7.7 -5.2 -2.8 -3.5 -3.7 -3.2 -2.3-0.9 Germany2.1 -3.7 -2.6 -1.2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.9 -2.8 Spain -7.7 -4.5 -2.3 -1.0 -0.8-0.8 0.0 0.5 Euro area1.1 -5.5 -3.7 -1.7 -1.8 -1.2 -1.2 -1.3 Gross public debt Italy 133.9 154.4 145.8 133.9 134.7 137.1 n.a. 138.4 France 98.2 114.9 112.8 109.8 113.2 116.3 118.1 111.4 Germany 58.7 68.0 67.9 62.3 62.2 63.5 65.2 64.4 Spain 97.7 119.3 115.7 105.2 101.6 100.0 98.2 109.3 Euro area 85.5 98.5 95.7 91.0 88.5 88.5 89.2 90.2

Source: for Italy for the period 2019-2025 Istat (for the items of general government consolidated accounts and GDP) and Banca d'Italia (for debt). For other countries and for euro area: AMECO, European Commission, Autumn 2025 Economic Forecast (November 2025). (1) Overall balance net of interest payments.

160 160 6 6 150 150 4 4 140 140 2 2 130 130 0 0 120 120−2 −2 110 110−4 −4 100 100 −6−6 90 90−8 −8 −10 −10 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25 Interest payments Overall balance Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 17 Primary balance (1)

36 - Government securities - stocks

(a) By category of investor (1) (b) By rate type (2)

(1) Sources: Banca d'Italia's Accounts, supervisory reports, External statistics. - (2) Source: the Securities Database. - (3) Excluding Banca d'Italia. - (4) Excluding Monetary financial institutions (MFIs). - (5) Includes BTP Ci and BTP-Italia.

37 - Average cost and average residual maturity of the public debt

(per cent and years)

Source: Istat, for interest expense. (1) Ratio between interest expense in the preceding 4 quarters and the stock of the debt at the end of the year-earlier quarter. - (2) The yield at issue is the average, weighted by the issue amounts allotted, of the compound allotment rates at the auctions settled during the month. - (3) Average monthly yield at maturity of the benchmark traded on the online government securities market.

100100 8 100 100 8.2 7 8.0 6 7.8 75 75 75 75 5 7.6 4 7.4 50 50 50 50 3 7.2 2 7.0 25 25 25 25 1 6.8 6.6 2022 2023 2024 2025 2022 2023 2024 2025−1 6.4 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 '26 General Government Banca d'Italia Fixed rate Average cost of debt (1) Gross yield on 1−year BOTs (2) Resident MFIs (3) Resident financial institutions (4) Variable rate (5) Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 18 Gross yield on 10−year BTPs (3) Average residual maturity (right−hand scale) Other residents Non residents Zero coupon

38 - Government benchmark securities: gross yields at maturity (1)

(percentage points, annual and monthly averages) BTPs CCTs 3 year 5 year 10 year 30 year 2015 0.34 0.77 1.72 2.77 0.71 2016 0.08 0.46 1.48 2.56 0.53 2017 0.19 0.83 2.11 3.25 0.74 2018 0.94 1.62 2.61 3.42 1.36 2019 0.64 1.15 1.95 2.94 1.34 2020 0.23 0.59 1.17 2.06 0.49 2021 -0.19 0.10 0.81 1.73 -0.03 2022 1.97 2.42 3.17 3.43 1.19 2023 3.58 3.76 4.29 4.66 4.45 2024 2.99 3.17 3.71 4.31 4.96 2025 2.44 2.84 3.59 4.41 3.43 2025 - Mar. 2.60 3.14 3.89 4.58 4.25 Apr. 2.35 2.88 3.71 4.49 3.72 May 2.30 2.77 3.63 4.45 3.29 June 2.25 2.74 3.50 4.32 3.27 July 2.35 2.78 3.54 4.40 3.22 Aug. 2.45 2.79 3.54 4.46 3.14 Sept. 2.47 2.81 3.56 4.52 3.15 Oct. 2.40 2.77 3.44 4.39 2.99 Nov. 2.40 2.76 3.46 4.36 2.85 Dec. 2.51 2.86 3.55 4.44 2.79 2026 - Jan. 2.46 2.79 3.49 4.39 2.75 Feb. 2.37 2.69 3.39 4.33 2.73 Mar. 2.82 3.10 3.73 4.54 2.90 Source: Based on daily MTS data. (1) The benchmark security for each category is the last security issued from the time it becomes the most heavily traded.

39 - Yield spreads between euro-area countries and German 10-year government bonds

(daily data; basis points)

Sources: Based on Bloomberg data.1,600 1,600 1,400 1,400 1,200 1,200 1,000 1,000 800 800 600 600 400 400

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025'26 Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 19Belgium France Ireland Italy Portugal Spain

MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

40 - Growth and inflation forecasts

(percentage change on previous period) Italy Growth Inflation (1) 2026 2027 2028 2026 2027 2028 Banca d'Italia (Apr.) (2) 0.5 0.5 0.8 2.6 1.8 1.9 European Commission (Nov.) (3) 0.8 0.8 n.a. 1.3 2.0 n.a. IMF (Jan./Oct.) (4) 0.7 0.7 n.a. 2.0 2.0 2.0 OECD (Mar.) (5) 0.4 0.6 n.a. 2.4 1.8 n.a. Euro area Growth Inflation (1) 2026 2027 2028 2026 2027 2028 Eurosystem/ECB (Mar.) (6) 0.9 1.3 1.4 2.6 2.0 2.1 European Commission (Nov.) (3) 1.2 1.4 n.a. 1.9 2.0 n.a. IMF (Jan./Oct.) (4) 1.3 1.4 n.a. 1.9 2.1 2.0 OECD (Mar.) (5) 0.8 1.2 n.a. 2.6 2.1 n.a. (1) Measured by the harmonized index of consumer prices. - (2) Macroeconomic projections for the Italian economy, baseline scenario, April 2026. GDP data adjusted for calendar effects. - (3) EC European Economic Forecast. Autumn 2025, November 2025. - (4) IMF World Economic Outlook Update, January 2026, for growth; IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2025, for inflation. - (5) OECD Interim Economic Outlook, March 2026. GDP data adjusted for calendar effects. - (6) ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, Baseline, March 2026. GDP data adjusted for calendar effects.

Banca d'Italia, The Italian economy in brief, Number 4/2026 20