Egypt Headline Inflation Rises to 15.2% in March 2026

Headline and Core Inflation: March 2026 1

• Annual urban headline inflation accelerated in March 2026 to 15.2 percent from 13.4 percent in February

1. This increase was driven by higher food and non-food inflation. Specifically, food inflation rose to 5.8 percent from 4.6 percent in February 2026, while non-food inflation increased to 21.5 percent from 19.3 percent in February 2026.

• Monthly urban headline inflation recorded 3.2 percent in March 2026, up from 2.8 percent in February
  2026, and from 1.6 percent in March 2025. This increase was mainly driven by higher food prices, which rose by 4.8 percent month-on-month.

• Annual core inflation rose to 14.0 percent in March 2026 from 12.7 percent in February 2026, reflecting
  higher contributions from core food and services. Meanwhile, monthly core inflation recorded 2.0 percent in March 2026 compared to 3.0 percent in February 2026 and 0.9 percent in March 2025.

• Annual rural headline inflation increased to 11.9 percent in March 2026 from 9.7 percent in February 2026.

Annual nationwide headline inflation -- the weighted average of both urban and rural inflation -- also

increased to 13.5 percent in March 2026 from 11.5 percent in February 2026.

5 48 Headline Inflation444 Core Inflation Headline Inflation40 Core Inflation363 32 28 224 Headline inflation is published by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), while core inflation is computed by the Central 20 1 Bank of Egypt. CAPMAS publishes three CPI series: (1) CPI-urban areas, which includes Cairo, Alexandria, urban Lower Egypt, urban Upper Egypt, Canal 116 cities and Frontier governorates, (2) CPI-rural areas, and (3) CPI-all areas. Numbers quoted in this note refer to CPI-urban. 12 1 08

Figure 1. Headline and Core CPI Inflation b. Monthly, in % a. Annual, in % Jul-11 Jul-13 Jul-15 Jul-17 Jul-19 Jul-21 Jul-23 Jul-25Source: Calculated by the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) and Central Bank of Egypt (CBE). Nov-10 Nov-12 Nov-14 Nov-16 Nov-18 Nov-20 Nov-22 Nov-24 Jun-24 Jun-25 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-14 Mar-16 Mar-18 Mar-20 Mar-22 Mar-24 Mar-26 Sep-24 Sep-25 Dec-24 Dec-25 Source: CAPMAS and CBE calculations. Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26

Key Drivers of Monthly Inflation in March 2026: Monthly food inflation increased to 4.8 percent in March 2026 from 2.8 percent in February 2026, contributing 1.74 percentage points (p.p.) to monthly headline inflation, and was driven by the following:

➢ Volatile food prices surged by 16.8 percent, driven by 26.0

percent increase in fresh vegetable prices. While this rise aligns with typical seasonal patterns, its magnitude came stronger than usual. Meanwhile, fresh fruit prices also edged up by 1.7 percent. Combined, these categories contributed 0.98 p.p. to monthly headline inflation.

➢ Poultry and egg prices rose by 10.4 percent and 1.8 percent,

respectively, marking their third consecutive monthly increase. Together, these categories contributed 0.56 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. Monthly non-food inflation eased slightly to 2.3 percent in March from 2.8 percent in February 2026, contributing 1.4 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This movement was mainly driven by the following: ➢ Inflation of regulated items rose by 3.4 percent, contributing 0.74 p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This increase primarily reflected: (1) the hike in fuel prices by 14.7 percent following the announcement by the Ministry of Petroleum on March 10 to adjust the prices of gasoline, diesel, and natural gas for vehicles; (2) an 11.5 percent increase in public inland transportation fares; and (3) a 21.4 percent price increase in LPG cylinders and household natural gas.

➢ Services inflation rose by 2.0 percent, driven by higher rents

and spending at restaurants and cafés. The latter may indicate a pass-through effect from higher fuel prices. Overall, services contributed 0.59 p.p. to monthly headline inflation.

➢ Retail inflation increased by 0.8 percent, contributing 0.12

p.p. to monthly headline inflation. This increase was mainly 3 Services Retail Items Core Fooddriven by higher prices of clothing and footwear, and personal Core Food Services3.0Fruits & Vegetables Regulated Itemscare products. 2.522.0Monthly core inflation recorded 2.0 percent in March 2026, 1.51reflecting the impact of the previously mentioned developments. 1.0 0.5More specifically, core food contributed 1.05 p.p. to monthly core 2 0 0.0inflation, while services and retail items added 0.81 p.p. and 0.16 -0.5 p.p., respectively. -1.0 Figure 2. Contribution to Monthly Headline Figure 3. Contribution to Monthly Core Inflation Inflation Jul-24 Jul-25Jul-24 Jul-25(in p.p.) (in p.p.) Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-26Source: CBE calculations. Jan-25 Mar-26 Mar-25 Mar-25 Mar-26 Sep-24 Nov-24 Sep-25 Nov-25 Sep-24 Nov-24 Sep-25 Nov-25 May-25 May-25Source: CBE calculations.

Key Drivers of Annual Inflation in March 2026: Annual food inflation accelerated to 5.8 percent in March from 4.6 percent in February, contributing 2.35 p.p. to annual headline inflation, driven by the following:

➢ Core food inflation increased by 4.1 percent, contributing 1.31

p.p. to annual headline inflation. This increase reflected seasonal price rises in poultry, beef, and seafood, the impact of which was partially offset by a continued decline in egg prices, which have trended downward over the past year.

➢ Volatile food prices increased by 15.9 percent, contributing

1.04 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This increase was driven by higher fresh vegetable prices, which were partially offset by a decline in fresh fruit prices.

Annual non-food inflation accelerated to 21.5 percent from 19.3 percent in February, contributing 12.81 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This increase primarily reflects an unfavorable base effect, despite a declining monthly non-food inflation during March 2026. This acceleration was driven by the following:

➢ Services inflation rose to 24.4 percent, contributing 6.56 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This increase reflected earlier increases in rents, transportation fares, and spending at restaurants and cafés, alongside the sustained impact of higher education costs, which picked up in February.

➢ Regulated inflation increased to 19.0 percent from 15.1

percent in February, contributing 3.99 p.p. to annual headline inflation. This acceleration reflected higher prices for petroleum products, household natural gas, tobacco, LPG cylinders, and inland transportation. Core Food Services Fruits & Vegetables➢ Retail inflation remained relatively stable at 16.1 percent, Core Food Regulated Items Services43compared to 15.9 percent in February, contributing 2.25 p.p. Retail items Annual Headline Inflation (%)4038 Annual Core Inflation36to annual headline inflation. This stability reflected broadly 333228steady prices across most items on an annual basis. 282324 1820Annual core inflation increased to 14.0 percent from 12.7 percent 1613in February, reflecting the dynamics of the aforementioned items. 12 3 88 In particular, services and retail items contributed 9.06 p.p. and 3.11 p.p. to annual core inflation respectively, while core food Figure 4. Contribution to Annual Headline contributed a modest 1.81 p.p. Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Inflation Figure 5. Contribution to Annual Core Inflation Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24 Nov-25(in p.p.) (in p.p.) Source: CBE calculations. Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Mar-25 Mar-26Source: CBE calculations. Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24 Nov-25

Table 1. Classification of Items included in Core CPI Food & Beverages Services Direct wages Eggs & dairy products Oils and fats Dried fruits Other food products Beverages Products related to dwelling repair Transportation services Furniture Mobile & internet services Carpets and other floor coverings Recreational & sporting services HH small tools & supplies Accommodation services HH cleaning products Private schools HH miscellaneous products Summer & winter vacations Telephone & telefax equipment Portman & gardener services Home entertainment equipment Cook & maid services Recreational equipment Technicians to HH appliances School supplies Teachers Medical care goods Hairdressers Bread and cereals Meat Fish and other seafood Processed vegetables Pulses Sugar and confectionery Clothing Rents (New Rent Law) Fabrics Imputed residential rents Footwear Hospital services Household (HH) textiles Cultural services HH appliances Hajj & Umrah trips Glassware, tableware and HH utensils Restaurants and cafes Purchase of vehicles Spare parts Tailors, laundry & shoe repair Motor oil Dwelling maintenance services Personal care supplies and products Repairs of audio-visual equipment Personal effects Physicians Books Mechanics

5 March 2025 February 2026 Weight in Furnishings, household equipment, March 2025 March 2026 to March to March 2026 basket 235.93 262.11 11.10 3.93 0.89 Housing, water, electricity, gas, and (Base year: Average 2018/2019 and routine dwelling /2 Excluding pulses, processed vegetables, and dried fruits. 19.46 154.11 208.47 35.27 3.26 Table 2. Consumer Price Index: Major Components 73.09 239.93 273.47 13.98 2.02 100.00 246.53 283.89 15.15 3.19 32.73 21.44 24.51 14.34 34.25 304.35 322.03 325.68 380.74 198.55 227.21 223.70 261.65 239.43 333.86 136.33 136.90 325.30 374.24 249.33 295.99 306.35 345.69 215.93 241.02 295.15 341.97 241.68 287.55 317.83 331.00 240.06 278.80 193.51 240.76 16.90 14.43 16.96 39.44 15.04 18.71 12.84 11.62 15.86 18.98 16.14 24.42 4.41 4.38 8.59 6.66 2.75 2.24 5.49 4.98 4.37 5.46 5.81 0.42 16.84 4.15 -0.47 4.76 0.89 1.74 9.76 0.00 0.04 0.00 1.73 1.18 3.43 2.65 0.80 2.01 3/Headline - all items Select aggregates Recreation and culture Food and Non-alcoholic beverages Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages Clothing and footwear Medical care Transportation Communications Education Hotels, cafes, and restaurants Miscellaneous goods and services Fruits and vegetablesRegulated items Food excl. fruits and vegetables Retail items Services /1(In %) (Index) (Index) (In %) (In %) Core CPI other fuels maintenance = 100) /3 Source: CAPMAS and CBE calculations. Based on the 2017/2018 Household Income, Expenditure and Consumption Survey. 1/2/