Digital Payments and Economic Performance: Evidence from Italy, 2012-2023
Summary
Banca d'Italia published Working Paper N. 80 examining the relationship between digital payment adoption and economic performance across Italian provinces from 2012 to 2023. The research uses a new dataset combining Bank of Italy, ISTAT, and Cerved statistical sources to construct granular indicators of digital payment usage, including card transactions, account-to-account (A2A) transfers, and e-commerce activity. Applying System-GMM estimation to a dynamic panel model, the study finds a positive and robust association between digital payment intensity and nominal GDP per capita. Italian provinces with higher per-capita use of cards and A2A transfers demonstrated stronger economic performance, an effect reinforced by broader digital intensity measures such as online-initiated payments.
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Banca d'Italia released Research Paper No. 80 analysing the linkage between digital payment adoption and provincial economic performance in Italy over the 2012-2023 period. The publication constructs a novel dataset from Bank of Italy, ISTAT, and Cerved sources, generating granular indicators covering card transactions, account-to-account transfers, and e-commerce activity. The study employs System-GMM estimation on a dynamic panel model and reports a statistically robust positive association between digital payment intensity and nominal per-capita GDP. Provinces with greater per-capita card and A2A usage showed comparatively stronger economic outcomes, with findings corroborated by supplementary digital intensity measures including online-initiated payments.
The research notes that while the empirical strategy addresses endogeneity concerns, the results should not be interpreted in strictly causal terms — the correlation between wider digital payment adoption and better economic performance may reflect broader technological and economic modernisation processes rather than a direct causal mechanism. The publication is primarily of interest to banking institutions, financial services firms, and policymakers assessing digital payments infrastructure investment in Italy.
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Apr 27, 2026GovPing captured this document from the original source. If the source has since changed or been removed, this is the text as it existed at that time.
N. 80 - Pagamenti digitali e performance economica: evidenze dall'Italia
Mercati, infrastrutture, sistemi di pagamento di Guerino Ardizzi, Niccolò Lippi Boncambi, Cristina Demma e Alberto Leorati Aprile 2026
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Questo articolo esamina la relazione tra l'adozione dei pagamenti digitali e la performance economica nelle province italiane dal 2012 al 2023. Utilizzando un nuovo dataset tratto dalle fonti statistiche di Banca d'Italia, ISTAT e Cerved, costruiamo indicatori granulari di utilizzo dei pagamenti digitali, tra cui transazioni con carta, trasferimenti account‑to‑account (A2A) e attività di e‑commerce.
Stimando tramite System‑GMM un modello a dati panel dinamico, riscontriamo un'associazione positiva e robusta tra l'intensità dei pagamenti digitali e il PIL nominale pro capite. Le province con maggiore uso pro capite di carte e trasferimenti A2A mostrano una performance economica più elevata, un'evidenza rafforzata da misure più ampie di intensità digitale, come i pagamenti avviati online.
Benché la strategia empirica affronti la questione dell'endogeneità, i risultati non possono essere interpretati in senso strettamente causale: la correlazione tra più ampia adozione dei pagamenti digitali e migliore performance economica può riflettere più ampi processi di modernizzazione tecnologica ed economica.
Testo della pubblicazione
- 27 aprile 2026 N. 80 - Pagamenti digitali e performance economica: evidenze dall'Italia PDF 3 MB (testo in inglese)
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