Lithium-ion Battery Fire Risk Analysis

NIST Publications

Published March 10th, 2026

Detected March 11th, 2026

Summary

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has published a technical note analyzing the risks associated with lithium-ion battery fires. The report provides data-driven estimates on the frequency of electric vehicle and structural fires involving these batteries, highlighting potential underestimations in current reporting.

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What changed

This NIST Technical Note (TN 2365) presents a multi-source data analysis to understand the risks of lithium-ion battery (LIB) fires across various stages of their lifecycle, from mining to disposal, and on the consumer side. The analysis estimates 5,718 electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid fires and 198,000 LIB fires in structures since 2011, with plug-in electric vehicle fires growing at approximately 45% annually and consumer LIB fires at 10% annually. The findings suggest a significant underestimation in current fire reporting data.

While this document is a research publication and does not impose new regulatory requirements, it serves as a critical resource for manufacturers, safety regulators, and consumers. The data presented can inform risk assessments, product development, and safety guidelines related to lithium-ion batteries. Compliance officers should be aware of these findings as they may influence future regulatory actions or industry best practices concerning battery safety and fire prevention.

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PUBLICATIONS

Understanding the Risk of Lithium-Ion Battery Fires - multi-source data analysis

Published

March 10, 2026

Author(s)

Stanley Gilbert, Hongqiang Fang, David Butry, Wai Cheong Tam, Michelle Donnelly, Juan Fung

Abstract

Lithium ion battery (LIB) fires are a growing problem that extends across the supply chain, including mining, production, warehousing, shipping, and waste disposal, as well as the consumer side. But data on such fires is fragmented and mostly incomplete. Many are secondary data sources, and for NFIRS and the CPSC data sets identification of LIB fires is difficult. Multiple independent data sources make it possible to estimate numbers on some types of fires. There have been an estimated 5718 (95 %CI: 2866 – 10 846) electric vehicle and plugin hybrid fires, and an estimated 198 000 (95 %CI: 84 000 – 465 000) LIB fires in structures since 2011. Plugin electric vehicle fires are growing at the rate of about 45 % (± 11.3 %) per year. Consumer LIB fires appear to be growing at a rate of 10 % (CI: 7.1 – 13.0) per year. The findings indicate a substantial underestimation in current reporting. Citation Technical Note (NIST TN) - 2365 Report Number 2365 NIST Pub Series Technical Note (NIST TN) Pub Type NIST Pubs

Download Paper

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2365 Local Download

Keywords

Lithium Ion Batteries, Fire, NFIRS, AI Analysis, Battery Electric Vehicles, Plugin Hybrid Electric Vehicles Fire risk reduction and Fire

Citation

Gilbert, S.
, FANG, H.
, Butry, D.
, Tam, W.
, Donnelly, M.
and Fung, J.

(2026),
Understanding the Risk of Lithium-Ion Battery Fires - multi-source data analysis, Technical Note (NIST TN), National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg, MD, [online], https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2365, https://tsapps.nist.gov/publication/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=960862       
  (Accessed March 11, 2026)