Eurocoin Indicator Increased to 0.54 in February

Banca d'Italia Press Releases

Published March 2nd, 2026

Detected March 13th, 2026

Summary

The Bank of Italy announced that the Eurocoin indicator, a summary index of the euro area's current economic situation, slightly increased to 0.54 in February 2026 from 0.49 in January. The indicator is boosted by manufacturing confidence and demand indicators.

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What changed

The Bank of Italy, in conjunction with CEPR, has released its monthly update on the Eurocoin indicator, which tracks the economic situation in the euro area. For February 2026, the indicator rose to 0.54, up from 0.49 in January, driven by increased confidence among manufacturing firms and moderate improvements in demand indicators. This indicator provides an early estimate of quarterly GDP growth, excluding volatile components, and is published several months before official Eurostat figures.

This notice serves as an informational update for financial professionals and investors tracking euro area economic trends. No specific compliance actions are required as this is a data release. The next publication dates are scheduled for April 2 and May 5, 2026. The document also references technical details and past revisions of the indicator for those seeking deeper analysis.

Source document (simplified)

Media relations Division – Bank of Italy e-mail: stampabi@bancaditalia.it Press Release By the Communications Directorate Rome, 2 March 2026 €-coin remains remains high in February • €-coin increased slightly in February, to 0.54 (from 0.49 in January). • The indicator continues to be boosted by the confidence of manufacturing firms and by a moderate improvement in demand indicators. • The €-coin indicator developed by Banca d’Italia provides a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area. The indicator is an estimate of quarterly GDP growth shorn of the most erratic components (seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility). €-coin is published monthly by Banca d’Italia and CEPR. • The next publication dates for €-coin are Thursday, 2 April and Tuesday, 5 May (to be confirmed). €-coin and euro-area GDP Source: Banca d’Italia and Eurostat. Note: The €-coin series is based on the real time estimates of the indicator at a given date and hence the series is not revised. On the other hand, the GDP growth rates are calculated on the basis of Eurostat’s most recently published series and do reflect any changes in the historical data.

Media relations Division – Bank of Italy e-mail: stampabi@bancaditalia.it €-coin is constructed monthly by exploiting a vast set of macroeconomic time series (e.g. industrial production indices, business and household surveys, demand indicators, and stock market indices) in order to extract the data needed to estimate the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth. €-coin precedes by several months the official euro-area GDP figure released by Eurostat and gives an early indication of the trend net of any erratic or short-term components. The following table shows the performance of the €-coin indicator over the last year: Month €-COIN February 2025 0.43 March 2025 0.25 April 2025 0.25 May 2025 0.26 June 2025 0.26 July 2025 0.36 August 2025 0.47 September 2025 0.48 October 2025 0.49 November 2025 0.48 December 2025 0.52 January 2026 0.49 February 2026 0.54 For further technical details on €-coin, see ‘New Eurocoin: Tracking economic growth in real time’, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 1024-1034, available in Banca d’Italia’s series Temi di Discussione (Working Papers), 631. http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2007/2007- 0631/entema631.pdf Starting in January 2021 a new version of the indicator was published, with some revisions relative to the database and estimate sample. For further details on the revision see: https://www.bancaditalia.it/media/comunicati/documenti/2021- 01/EuroCoinDecember2020ENG.pdf?languageid=1