METHOD FOR DETERMINING AN UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH TRAJECTORY PREDICTIONS OF A VEHICLE

Abstract

A method for determining an uncertainty associated with trajectory predictions of a vehicle. The method includes providing a trained machine learning model, the machine learning model being trained to predict trajectories based on sensor data and to assign scores reflecting a likelihood of each predicted trajectory; providing predicted trajectory distributions using respective predictions based on the sensor data by the at least one trained machine learning model; utilizing Monte Carlo sampling to estimate an entropy of a respective predicted trajectory distribution, thereby obtaining an estimate of an aleatoric uncertainty; utilizing Monte Carlo sampling to estimate an entropy of the predicted trajectory distributions, thereby obtaining an estimate of a total uncertainty; determining an epistemic uncertainty by subtracting the aleatoric uncertainty from the total uncertainty; providing the determined epistemic uncertainty and the aleatoric uncertainty for the predicted trajectories of the at least one machine learning model.

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